Range Bound

Good Afternoon,

We wrap the week up with a bullish employment number. Was it really better than expected? Are we creating above average jobs? Who cares! Central Banks are here - see the latest Fed statement where they can do more if necessary. And this is the "goldilocks" scenario where it isn't too much good news which keeps the Fed involved.

With that, I give you my "technical" levels. Remember, technical levels have reasons behind them. The reasons behind the 1625 and 1650 level are "psychological". Not! technical:

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

We had the pleasure of receiving the FOMC statement - no change there. But could it be "buy the rumor, sell the fact?" What about the ECB tomorrow. If they come out with the same stance and don't do anything drastically more accomodative, could we see the same thing?

So far, weakening fundamentals haven't been able to get us through the 1600 double top in the SPX. Will poor(er) economic data push us over the top?

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Morning,

On the heels of last night's post, the USD is holding in against the CAD. But as we know, equity prices are trying to grind to higher levels which could drag the USD lower as oil prices continue their rise.

Keep an eye on these technical levels as the trading day goes on. But for now, I would like to preview this week's fundamentals:

**CHPM - a look at the manufacturing sector (which showed weakness in the form of Philly and NY). Look at the employment and new orders components as well

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Evening,

Fundamentally, we have a busy week. I will get more into that tomorrow as most of the data comes later in the week. So with that, let's get right to the charts.

The USD has weakened against most currencies including the CAD as of late as oil prices have risen with the SPX equity move from 1537 to 1593.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Fundamentally, claims were flat - look for these to flatten/rise up as we are only a month away from college graduation and also an "overbought" stock market that corrects could take the shine off the great retail environment we have had.  Philly Fed was weaker than expected.

Next week we have Durable Goods, Claims and Advance GDP - not a heavy week.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Morning,

No fundamental until tomorrow, but keep an eye on claims - see the past few commentaries for more detail on fundamentals.

Technicals:

**IWM - will it close below Monday's low

**QQQ - same thing, going lower than Monday's low

**DIA - getting there

**SPY - currently below Monday's close

This is what we were looking for - a failure - otherwise known as a double top or a lower high and then a lower low. See the IWM for a double top and a lower low.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

This has been the pattern - the SPX rallies the day after an idiotic event. Traders in New York aren't going to let this type of cowardly action take the markets down. Regardless (bad choice of words), but despite the event, we still need to look at retracements in the SPX. Have we come off enough to sell the rallies? We saw the double top in IWM. Are retracements or possibly a double top lurking in the SPX?

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Fundamentals first. And now to technicals. Why did I skip fundamentals, because finally, we have a technical level to talk about. 1600 in the SPX. I think that 3 points is close enough as we got to 1957 and change. Looks like some traders went short at this technical level.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Fundamentals first. And now to technicals. Why did I skip fundamentals, because finally, we have a technical level to talk about. 1600 in the SPX. I think that 3 points is close enough as we got to 1957 and change. Looks like some traders went short at this technical level.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.