Trend Following

Good Afternoon,

Looking forward to tomorrow night's IBFX "Open Discussion on Technical Analysis" webinar. Will we be able to talk about a break lower in the EUR as the USD shines on as the shining star?

Past performance is not indicative of future results

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

I reviewed the massive fundamental data week that lies ahead on Friday - please refer to that for the preview. Also, I will be conducting another IBFX Webinar on Wednesday night. I hope you can join!

Today, we saw some stabilization in the AUD/USD market, but beware of the fundamental reason why the AUD is weak.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Fundamentally, we were weak across the board. Technically, is that a boon or bust for equity prices at these levels? Definitely short-term it seems to be a boon, as long as the Fed doesn't have any change of plans...Claims were well above expectations - need more data here to see if this is a pattern. Manufacturing data, which I expected to rebound was sluggish again.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

That was quick. Four days and we moved from 1625 to 1650 in the SPX. We are now at a "psychological resistance level" and we are also very close to the upper trend line channel. So will we zoom from 1650 to 1700 and the top of that channel just as quickly? If you are a seller, are you still short? If you want to sell, is this a good level to try it out at?

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Just a quick fundamental update as it looks like the week's technicals got off to a rather slow start. Just to note though, no sellers yet in the equity markets.

Retail sales came out today - a bit better than expected. Empire State and Philly Fed on the manufacturing side. These should rebound a bit from poor readings last month. Claims - employment picture continues to get better. Inflation data - really? Consumer sentiment - should be up as the markets are up.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

I am counting the SPX points since the Non Farm Payrolls report. We hit a high of 1632ish, so that makes 34 points or just over 2% in 5 trading days. Time to back off as we still are at that first "resistance" level I talked about in past articles.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Morning,

So with a light data week, we come to our first "technical" level in the SPX. We have 1625 as a psychological level as well as this short term trend line:

Past performance is not indicative of future results

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Morning,

That didn't take long. We broke out above 1600 and already got to the 1625 area. Will this "psychological" area that is combined with the DOW at 15k be enought to stop the insanity?

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

We wrap the week up with a bullish employment number. Was it really better than expected? Are we creating above average jobs? Who cares! Central Banks are here - see the latest Fed statement where they can do more if necessary. And this is the "goldilocks" scenario where it isn't too much good news which keeps the Fed involved.

With that, I give you my "technical" levels. Remember, technical levels have reasons behind them. The reasons behind the 1625 and 1650 level are "psychological". Not! technical:

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

We had the pleasure of receiving the FOMC statement - no change there. But could it be "buy the rumor, sell the fact?" What about the ECB tomorrow. If they come out with the same stance and don't do anything drastically more accomodative, could we see the same thing?

So far, weakening fundamentals haven't been able to get us through the 1600 double top in the SPX. Will poor(er) economic data push us over the top?

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.