Trading the Euro’s Rally

Friday, Jul 13, 2012

The weakness in the euro is getting a reprieve and despite today’s strength, I see it as an opportunity to set up a longer-term intraday swing short on both the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.

Risk is on for today and this is pushing the dollar and yen lower against the euro but the play I am looking for is the trend-follow which means I will look for near-term resistance to sell into as I would expect exhaustion and the larger, dominant trend to ultimately prevail.

Past performance is not indicative of future results

The 240-minute chart of the EUR/USD is trending lower and today’s correction higher of the “four to six o’clock” downtrend is an opportunity to enter short with the trend. Notice the consistent red GRaB candles that reflect the bears stronghold on sentiment and momentum on this time frame.

 


Past performance is not indicative of future results

When there is a dramatic rally such as the one seen today, it’s good to wait for signs of exhaustion when looking to enter on a correction. In this case the rally should find resistance and at that point – ideally – the longer-term trend follow should at or near the entry area. The five and 15-minute charts are what I call “building block” time frames. When I see the consolidation that follows the uptrend exhausting, the confirmation for the 240-minute chart is found.

 


Past performance is not indicative of future results

The EUR/JPY is setting up a similar 240-minute set up. This entry differs from it’s EUR/USD cousin since the level reached is only the 20 period SMA close or  “aggro” or agrresive entry. The aggro entry represents a shallower correction and therefore should only be entered with 1/4 to 1/3 the overall position size. This then leaves some powder dry for any more upside where the conservative level – the 34 period EMA low – could be reached.

 


Past performance is not indicative of future results

Again, the building block time frames should reflect some exhaustion but since the EUR/JPY has only reached the 240-minute “aggro” entry, there is a chance that there could be more upside in this pair before exhaustion sets in. One thing that sellers have on their side is the likely selling pressure that the 97.00 major psychological level could bring. Be cautious of a rally through the “00” though as this could quickly usher in a move to 97.20, the minor psychological level.

 

As an active forex trader and Chief Currency Analyst for InterbankFX.com I do write for a number of sites all over the web and I am happy to say that I will be posting updates at www.IBFXconnect.com. My Activity Board will feature the trades from my trading account as well as intraday commentary.

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Posted By: 

Raghee Horner

Raghee Horner, chief currency analyst for IBFX, provides her personal daily trading tips and insights through Dailyforextradingedge.com. An experienced trader with over fifteen years in the markets, Raghee is the co-founder of EZ2Trade Software and has taught her brand of technical analysis and charting strategies to students all over the world. She is an international author and has taught currencies, futures, and equities trading for over a decade.