USD/CAD Volatility

Tuesday, Jun 12, 2012

Good Afternoon,

The markets continue their whipsaw action and overall, directionless trend over the past few weeks. Maybe new news will help give us some direction. That news could be tomorrow's retail sales, Thursday's claims and of course, the Greek elections this weekend. Throw in an options expiration Friday and we have some excitement!

I am hoping the markets do hang in and head up above recent SPX resistance around the 1330-1350 area. If we can get above that level given no real improvement in economic data, that may give us a push up towards old higs at the 1370-1390 level. That would be a sweet way to wrap up the first 6 months of the trading year.

Technically, the USD/CAD could have a head and shoulders pattern (a similar pattern on the inverse could be appearing in the SPX).

Past performance is not indicative of future results

If the Head and Shoulders pattern does work itself out, that means a weaker USD and higher oil prices and would support the inverse (bullish pattern) head and shoulders on SPX. On the other hand, there is a chance that the support level around the 38% mark at 1.0200 holds, providing a bottom to the dollar and a top to oil prices. Regardless, there has been good movement here as oil swings up and down - one of the more volatile commodities as of late.

Past performance is not indicative of future results

You can see yesterday's break of support at 31 and then today, we are right back above that point. I think that the oil complex may continue to provide trading opportunities as it could easily break back below the support level, or possibly form a double bottom (or head and shoulders pattern) sending it higher.

See you tomorrow evening for the IBFX Volatility Webinar

Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool

Coach Brian

Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.