The
10:30pm EST release of the RBA Rate and Statement has congested the
aussie-greenback throughout Monday. The congestion is a typical reflection of
the “guillotine syndrome” that often keeps traders from sticking their necks
out too far from the range. The dominant trend in the AUD/USD remains bullish
and the 240-minute chart has been resting on the swing buy zone as the release
nears.
The forecast is calling for a .25% cut in the current 4.25% rate.
(http://www.forexfactory) This comes as the AUD/USD has reached a five-month high on Australia’s
trade surplus. While crude is lower - likely as some far premium is unwound -
commodities as a whole (reflected in the Continuous Commodity Index futures
contract) has been rallying since mid-December 2011 after a fast drop from
August to November of last year. Rebounding commodity prices and increasing
exports are helping Australia’s economy two-fold.
The AUD/USD has a bullish Directional Bias and the daily chart is
still holding a “twelve to two o’clock” uptrend. The pair has been trading
above its 200DMA since January 16.
The 240-minute set up is a swing buy based upon this longer-term, intraday
time frame’s uptrend and current pullback into the swing buy zone between the 20
period SMA close and 34 period EMA high. Prices are also trading above the
1.0700 major psychological level.
Past
performance is not indicative of future results
Expect volatility but the uptrend for
now remains intact as the RBA decision looms over the pair. The 1.0700 level
may be tested and therefore if the swing buy is taken look to 1.0680 minor psychological
level to perhaps slow a move lower. If the RBA does not cut rates, the pair
could soar since a 0.25% cut has been discounted. A dovish statement suggesting
more cuts could easily send the pair lower to test 1.0650. This entry - because
of the environment - is aggressive.
As an active forex trader and Chief
Currency Analyst for InterbankFX.com I do write for a number of sites all over
the web and I am happy to say that I will be posting updates atwww.IBFXconnect.com. MyActivity Boardwill feature the trades from my trading account as well as
intraday commentary.
Start the discussion! Questions?
Comments. Leave it here at the Daily Forex Trading Edge for Raghee to
personally answer. Using the icons at the top of the article to forward this
update to a friend via email, post it on Google or Facebook or simply print it
out for reading later.
Forex
trading is one of
the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and
suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists
that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not
invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Posted By:
Raghee Horner
Raghee Horner, chief currency analyst for Interbank FX, provides her personal daily trading tips and insights through Dailyforextradingedge.com. An experienced trader with over fifteen years in the markets, Raghee is the co-founder of EZ2Trade Software and has taught her brand of technical analysis and charting strategies to students all over the world. She is an international author and has taught currencies, futures, and equities trading for over a decade.
The 10:30pm EST release of the RBA Rate and Statement has congested the aussie-greenback throughout Monday. The congestion is a typical reflection of the “guillotine syndrome” that often keeps traders from sticking their necks out too far from the range. The dominant trend in the AUD/USD remains bullish and the 240-minute chart has been resting on the swing buy zone as the release nears.
The forecast is calling for a .25% cut in the current 4.25% rate. (http://www.forexfactory) This comes as the AUD/USD has reached a five-month high on Australia’s trade surplus. While crude is lower - likely as some far premium is unwound - commodities as a whole (reflected in the Continuous Commodity Index futures contract) has been rallying since mid-December 2011 after a fast drop from August to November of last year. Rebounding commodity prices and increasing exports are helping Australia’s economy two-fold.
The AUD/USD has a bullish Directional Bias and the daily chart is still holding a “twelve to two o’clock” uptrend. The pair has been trading above its 200DMA since January 16.
The 240-minute set up is a swing buy based upon this longer-term, intraday time frame’s uptrend and current pullback into the swing buy zone between the 20 period SMA close and 34 period EMA high. Prices are also trading above the 1.0700 major psychological level.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Expect volatility but the uptrend for now remains intact as the RBA decision looms over the pair. The 1.0700 level may be tested and therefore if the swing buy is taken look to 1.0680 minor psychological level to perhaps slow a move lower. If the RBA does not cut rates, the pair could soar since a 0.25% cut has been discounted. A dovish statement suggesting more cuts could easily send the pair lower to test 1.0650. This entry - because of the environment - is aggressive.
As an active forex trader and Chief Currency Analyst for InterbankFX.com I do write for a number of sites all over the web and I am happy to say that I will be posting updates at www.IBFXconnect.com. My Activity Board will feature the trades from my trading account as well as intraday commentary.
Start the discussion! Questions? Comments. Leave it here at the Daily Forex Trading Edge for Raghee to personally answer. Using the icons at the top of the article to forward this update to a friend via email, post it on Google or Facebook or simply print it out for reading later.
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Raghee Horner