It’s Been Setting Up & Now it’s Here: Market Transition
Two months ago I was preparing for Dow weakness but there was one problem: While the path of resistance seemed to be to the downside, price action simply wasn’t reflecting it, yet. The market was in the early stages of distribution – range-bound and volatile – but the weakness was pushing to lower lows. Not until last Friday that it. If Monday took a breather, it was just so that the bears could emerge from hibernation.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was able to manage a higher high but once the market trend reflects a “two to four o’clock” angle in the 34EMA Wave, these higher highs take on less significance and are typically a by-product of increased volatility.
Where could the Dow find support if the sideways chop is to find a new floor as the range widens? That could be anyone’s guess but we can reduce the number of potential floors by looking back to previous decision levels (lows and highs) that were in play.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
The daily Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) has now slipped lower through the support that Monday’s trading session was able to close back above – at 13,296 – which showed that the bulls were willing to step in and support the 13,300 major psychological level. Today that support seems to have slipped lower to the 13,080 to 13,100 level and which the second large red GRaB candle plotted on the daily these two session of strong selling indicates that 1) the transition in the Dow has gone from bullish-neutral to neutral-bearish and 2) the first steps to a transition from chop to a downtrend could be setting up. But remember this is still (for now) a sideways market.
In a more impactful way, I am now flat in all my risk ON positions (positions that would have benefitted from even slightly more risk appetite than aversion). This is the most significant shift in my overall trading approach since June of this year.
As the volatility continues to push equities around, the dollar will be a beneficiary of this and is likely to find a range of its down at the lower area of the downtrend, which is actually still intact (and will continue to be unless the index trades above 80.50). The volatility will also cause me to “retreat” to shorter term time frames (five, 15, and 30-minute) to stay nimble as longer-term following through will be increasingly more difficult to come by.
As an active forex trader and Chief Currency Analyst for InterbankFX.com I do write for a number of sites all over the web and I am happy to say that I will be posting updates at www.IBFXconnect.com. My Activity Board will feature the trades from my trading account as well as intraday commentary.
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