Exhausted EUR/USD Could Be Ripe for a Fade

Wednesday, Feb 8, 2012

Looking at two extremes, my 15-minute chart and the daily, there seems to be a commonality: The EUR/USD looks a little tired here. If that’s the case, what does this say about risk and today’s doji candle on the daily dollar?

The EUR/USD is chopping along on the 15-minute chart and this alone would be a market phase that I would consider for an aggressive “distribution fade” entry short as prices seem to be stuck in a range. The range reflects the lack of organized sentiment and momentum without which there is no trend.

The fade short set up would trigger as prices trade up into the highs of the range as the Stochastics read overbought (above 80).

Past performance is not indicative of future results

The 15-minute chart has a “two to four o’clock” 34EMA Wave angle which indicates the likelihood for exhaustion as prices reach both the top and bottom of the range. The range highs are current in play as the Stochastics climb towards 80 and an overbought reading.

 

The daily chart has been struggling to accelerate higher through the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level and this makes the 1.3250 major psychological level an important price to watch since the bulls cannot seem to gain control of this level and have not been able to make it support.

The doji candle on both the daily EUR/USD and the U.S. Dollar Index show that today was a draw. Neither the bulls nor bears won the day but I would have to say there is more support for risk appetite that aversion even after today’s flat session. If the bulls cannot capitalize on this sentiment, look for exhaustion to push the EUR/USD lower towards a test of 1.3200.

Past performance is not indicative of future results

Another fadein the works? The daily EUR/USD seems to lack enough bullish momentum to leave 1.3250 behind. Instead the gravitiational pull of the this level along with a flat day in Dow and U.S. dollar have hit the pause button for the EUR/USD rally.

 

As an active forex trader and Chief Currency Analyst for InterbankFX.com I do write for a number of sites all over the web and I am happy to say that I will be posting updates at www.IBFXconnect.com. My Activity Board will feature the trades from my trading account as well as intraday commentary.

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Posted By: 

Raghee Horner

Raghee Horner, chief currency analyst for Interbank FX, provides her personal daily trading tips and insights through Dailyforextradingedge.com. An experienced trader with over fifteen years in the markets, Raghee is the co-founder of EZ2Trade Software and has taught her brand of technical analysis and charting strategies to students all over the world. She is an international author and has taught currencies, futures, and equities trading for over a decade.
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