The
major psychological level in the U.S. Dollar Index is back in play. The early
morning (pre-NFP) strength gave way to afternoon weakness as 79.00 is holding
as near-term support. The Dow’s rally through 12,850 put the index near the
highs of the range as the Dow closes near the highs of the session.
With more than a just a little expectation for a possible sell-off
after the strong open, the Dow held onto gains and - for forex traders -
pointed to the risk ON environment that would eventually erode the dollar’s
morning bullishness.
The dollar’s strength was exactly what the GBP/USD 240-minute
swing trade needed through. The correction lower in the cable was more dramatic
than likely would have been sans the NFP volatility but none-the-less offered
both an aggressive 20 period SMA close and conservative 34 period EMA high
entry.
It’s important to also note that despite the sudden pullback - in light
of the much-better-than-expected NFP result - never threatened the Point of
Validity of the swing buy. However it did break the 34 period EMA close which
could have been a “cheated-in” stop loss. The decision to use a cheated-in stop
on NFP morning would have been a poor one since respect for the expected
volatility would have meant the 34 period EMA low (minus three to five pips)
would have been more prudent.
Past
performance is not indicative of future results
The NFP-fueled pullback and trigger of
the GBP/USD swing buy would have been slightly nerve-wracking considering the
timing, but the 34EMA Wave support held and the cable recovered nicely as risk
appetite pressured the greenback into the Friday close.
There may be talk of a stronger dollar due to perhaps an expectation
that the Fed may not add another go-round of asset purchases. But this is only speculation.
Is QE3 off the table? I don’t think today’s NFP is enough to derail that discussion
and price action did not suggest that traders thought so either.
Upside targets for the GBP/USD long position should respect the selling
pressure that will likely be waiting at the 1.5900 major psych level and therefore
a 1.5890-1.5895 exit would allow for traders to “step out in front of size” as
selling pressure builds at the “00”.
As an active forex trader and Chief
Currency Analyst for InterbankFX.com I do write for a number of sites all over
the web and I am happy to say that I will be posting updates atwww.IBFXconnect.com. MyActivity Boardwill feature the trades from my trading account as well as
intraday commentary.
Start the discussion! Questions?
Comments. Leave it here at the Daily Forex Trading Edge for Raghee to
personally answer. Using the icons at the top of the article to forward this
update to a friend via email, post it on Google or Facebook or simply print it
out for reading later.
Forex
trading is one of
the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable
for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you
could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest
money that you cannot afford to lose.
Posted By:
Raghee Horner
Raghee Horner, chief currency analyst for Interbank FX, provides her personal daily trading tips and insights through Dailyforextradingedge.com. An experienced trader with over fifteen years in the markets, Raghee is the co-founder of EZ2Trade Software and has taught her brand of technical analysis and charting strategies to students all over the world. She is an international author and has taught currencies, futures, and equities trading for over a decade.
The major psychological level in the U.S. Dollar Index is back in play. The early morning (pre-NFP) strength gave way to afternoon weakness as 79.00 is holding as near-term support. The Dow’s rally through 12,850 put the index near the highs of the range as the Dow closes near the highs of the session.
With more than a just a little expectation for a possible sell-off after the strong open, the Dow held onto gains and - for forex traders - pointed to the risk ON environment that would eventually erode the dollar’s morning bullishness.
The dollar’s strength was exactly what the GBP/USD 240-minute swing trade needed through. The correction lower in the cable was more dramatic than likely would have been sans the NFP volatility but none-the-less offered both an aggressive 20 period SMA close and conservative 34 period EMA high entry.
It’s important to also note that despite the sudden pullback - in light of the much-better-than-expected NFP result - never threatened the Point of Validity of the swing buy. However it did break the 34 period EMA close which could have been a “cheated-in” stop loss. The decision to use a cheated-in stop on NFP morning would have been a poor one since respect for the expected volatility would have meant the 34 period EMA low (minus three to five pips) would have been more prudent.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
The NFP-fueled pullback and trigger of the GBP/USD swing buy would have been slightly nerve-wracking considering the timing, but the 34EMA Wave support held and the cable recovered nicely as risk appetite pressured the greenback into the Friday close.
There may be talk of a stronger dollar due to perhaps an expectation that the Fed may not add another go-round of asset purchases. But this is only speculation. Is QE3 off the table? I don’t think today’s NFP is enough to derail that discussion and price action did not suggest that traders thought so either.
Upside targets for the GBP/USD long position should respect the selling pressure that will likely be waiting at the 1.5900 major psych level and therefore a 1.5890-1.5895 exit would allow for traders to “step out in front of size” as selling pressure builds at the “00”.
As an active forex trader and Chief Currency Analyst for InterbankFX.com I do write for a number of sites all over the web and I am happy to say that I will be posting updates at www.IBFXconnect.com. My Activity Board will feature the trades from my trading account as well as intraday commentary.
Start the discussion! Questions? Comments. Leave it here at the Daily Forex Trading Edge for Raghee to personally answer. Using the icons at the top of the article to forward this update to a friend via email, post it on Google or Facebook or simply print it out for reading later.
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Raghee Horner